Key Findings
- First £100 Replica Shirt Imminent: Our analysis suggests that a Premier League club could charge a minimum of £100 for a replica shirt as early as the 2029/30 season, driven by a rapid increase in shirt prices in recent years.
- Tottenham Leads the Pack: Tottenham scored a perfect 100/100 in our ranking system, making them the most likely club first to introduce a minimum £100 for a replica shirt.
- Steady Price Increases: Since 1992, the average price of top Premier League club shirts has risen from £29.99 to £81.67, an average annual increase of £1.57. Recent trends have accelerated to £3.67 per year.
- Trendsetters in Shirt Releases: Tottenham have consistently pushed new kit release norms, with 82 shirt releases since 1992, and a record of 21 years of consecutive new home kit releases.
- Three-Kit Release Adoption: Tottenham adopted a three-kit release schedule 21 seasons ago, leading the trend ahead of other top clubs, with Manchester City and Chelsea following 4 seasons later.
- Most Expensive Season Ticket: Tottenham also tops the list for the most expensive season ticket in the 2024/25 season, priced at £2367.
Based on exclusive research from Casino Kings, we can reveal the projected timeline and club most likely to be the first to charge a minimum of £100 for an adult replica Premier League shirt. Our analysis suggests this landmark price could be reached as early as the start of the 2029/30 season.
During our recent “Tale of Two Shirts” series, we conducted a comprehensive historical price analysis of home shirt releases since the Premier League’s inception. This research revealed that the first £100 adult replica shirt is not a distant possibility—it’s right around the corner.
While authentic “player version” shirts have long surpassed this price point, our forecast shows that one of the so-called ‘Top 6’ clubs could be just four seasons away from reaching a £100 baseline for replica shirts.
Future Price Forecasting
We examined shirt price trends from the past 32, 20, 15, 10, and 5 years to predict when the first £100 price tag (or a symbolic £99.99) will arrive. Our analysis of historical data from 1992 to 2024 shows that average shirt prices for top Premier League clubs have risen from £29.99 to £81.67—an increase of approximately £1.57 per year.
Using the 32-year trend, the first £100 adult replica shirt is predicted to hit the shelves by the 2035/36 season. However, over the past five years, the pace of price increases has accelerated significantly to an average of £3.67 per season. If this trend continues, the £100 threshold could be reached much sooner—as early as the 2029/30 season.
With football’s affordability increasingly under scrutiny, such a milestone would no doubt provoke a fierce debate.
Which club will be the first to take this controversial step and face the inevitable PR backlash?
Metrics to Judge the First Club
To identify which Premier League club is most likely to be the first to break the £100 barrier, we assessed the commercial behaviour of the ‘Top 6’ clubs. Our analysis was based on four key indicators of their approach to shirt marketing and fan pricing:
- Current shirt prices
- Total shirt releases since 1992
- Consistency of annual home kit releases
- Number of seasons with three new kits per season
- Highest season ticket price for 2024/25
We scored and ranked each club based on their position in these categories. The ‘Top 6’ were selected for this analysis as they consistently dominate commercial revenue and show a willingness to push price boundaries.
1# Current Cost of Shirts (2024/25)
Tottenham sits at the top of the list, charging £85 for their replica shirt, just ahead of Chelsea at £84.99. While we debated splitting the top spot, that extra penny might be the difference between getting to the headline £100 in the future rather than just £99.99.
| Rank | Club | Manufacturer | Price (£) | Points |
| 1 | Tottenham | Nike | £85.00 | 20 |
| 2 | Chelsea | Nike | £84.99 | 16 |
| 3 | Arsenal | Adidas | £80.00 | 6 |
| = | Liverpool | Nike | £80.00 | 6 |
| = | Manchester City | Puma | £80.00 | 6 |
| = | Manchester United | Adidas | £80.00 | 6 |
2# Total Number of Releases Since 1992
Tottenham have released 82 different outfield shirts since 1992—more than any other club in the ‘Top 6’.
| Rank | Club | Total Releases | Points |
| 1 | Tottenham | 82 | 20 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 79 | 16 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 76 | 10 |
| = | Chelsea | 76 | 10 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 75 | 4 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 74 | 0 |
#3 Years of Annual Home Kit Releases
Tottenham have released a new home kit 21 seasons consistently, and for 23 of the last 24 seasons, setting a trend for annual home kit changes earlier than their rivals.
| Rank | Club | Years of New Home Kit | Points |
| 1 | Tottenham | 21 | 20 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 17 | 14 |
| = | Chelsea | 17 | 14 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 16 | 8 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 13 | 4 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 11 | 0 |
4# Number of Years of Annual 3 Kit Releases
Tottenham were also pioneers in adopting three-kit releases every season, starting the trend over two decades ago.
| Rank | Club | Years with 3 Kits | Points |
| 1 | Tottenham | 21 | 20 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 17 | 14 |
| = | Chelsea | 17 | 14 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 13 | 8 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 11 | 2 |
| = | Arsenal | 11 | 2 |
5# Most Expensive Season Ticket (2024/25)
Tottenham’s most expensive season ticket tops the list, with a staggering maximum price of £2367—over £316 more than Arsenal, the second-highest on the list.
| Rank | Club | Max Season Ticket (£) | Points |
| 1 | Tottenham | £2367 | 20 |
| 2 | Arsenal | £2050.50 | 16 |
| 3 | Manchester City | £1122 | 12 |
| 4 | Manchester United | £1057 | 8 |
| 5 | Chelsea | £1015 | 4 |
| 6 | Liverpool | £904 | 0 |
Final League Table
Tottenham scored a perfect 100/100, clearly leading the charge toward the £100 milestone.
| Rank | Club | Total Score |
| 1 | Tottenham | 100 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 62 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 58 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 34 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 24 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 22 |
Conclusion
Tottenham’s dominance across multiple commercial metrics suggests they are best placed to be the first club to charge £100 for an adult replica kit. Their aggressive pricing, prolific kit releases, and record-breaking season ticket prices indicate a club willing to push boundaries. Given the influence of manufacturers like Nike, however, it’s possible that multiple clubs may reach the £100 threshold simultaneously to diffuse criticism.
Based on current trends, our forecast predicts this shift will happen ahead of the 2030/31 season.
Get saving, Spurs fans!